Forecast With Honesty: Embrace Uncertainty and Plan Scenarios
Create three versions of your plan and pre-decide actions for each. If revenue lags, cut experiments and extend runway; if it accelerates, scale proven channels. Write these responses into your budget notes to avoid emotional decisions under pressure.
Forecast With Honesty: Embrace Uncertainty and Plan Scenarios
Model customers in cohorts with realistic conversion, retention, and expansion rates. Instead of hopeful top-down numbers, you’ll manage granular levers you can actually influence. Share cohort assumptions in your weekly standup and record changes visibly.
Forecast With Honesty: Embrace Uncertainty and Plan Scenarios
Test how key variables—ad costs, sales cycle length, churn—affect cash burn. Small shifts can compound quickly. This keeps your focus on the few metrics that matter and guides experiments to de-risk the budget’s riskiest assumptions.